How It Works
Understanding our fishing forecast
Multi-Factor Scoring System
Our fishing forecast combines up to twelve weighted environmental factors into a single score (0-100) that predicts fish activity levels. Each factor uses smooth interpolation curves for natural scoring transitions, with season-aware temperature analysis, wind direction modeling, front detection from pressure rate-of-change, and multi-day weather stability tracking. Crucially, factors don't score in isolation — the system detects interactions between them: severe weather gates solunar scores, low dissolved oxygen reduces water temperature influence, and classic cold-front patterns trigger synergy bonuses. Factor weights shift by season (e.g., solunar matters more in winter, humidity and water temperature matter more in summer), and data confidence affects influence (estimated water temps carry less weight than measured readings). Beyond the weighted factors, advanced modifiers for dissolved oxygen, turbidity, air quality, precipitation context, spawn windows, lunar distance, photoperiod, and hourly convergence further refine the score.
The Factors
Solunar Activity
Moon-driven feeding periods
Fish activity peaks during major (moonrise/moonset) and minor (moon overhead/underfoot) solunar periods. These 2-3 hour windows trigger instinctive feeding behavior.
Moon Phase
New & Full moon = peak activity
New and full moons create stronger gravitational pulls, leading to more active fish. Phase scoring uses a plateau curve that stays high near peak phases (100 at new/full, 95 at ±1 day) then gradually drops to 50 at quarter moons. Zodiac influence is secondary — water signs add a modest bonus. Lunar distance (perigee vs apogee) further modifies the solunar score.
Barometric Pressure
Falling pressure triggers feeding
Fish sense pressure changes through their swim bladders. Our algorithm tracks the rate of change over 3-hour and 6-hour windows to detect approaching fronts. Slowly falling pressure (0.5-2.0 hPa/hr) triggers the strongest feeding response, while rapidly rising post-front pressure often causes a temporary slowdown. Pressure acceleration (how fast the rate is changing) adds +5 for an accelerating fall, and reversal detection — when pressure switches from falling to rising — identifies the prime "recovery window" (+8 bonus within 6 hours).
Wind
Speed & direction both matter
Light winds (5-15 mph) create ideal surface chop. Wind direction is also scored: south and southwest winds are most favorable for fishing, while east and northeast winds tend to suppress activity. When a south wind coincides with falling pressure, the effect is amplified. Wind consistency is also factored — steady winds earn a bonus while erratic, gusty winds reduce the score.
Air Temperature
Season & location adjusted
Temperature scoring adjusts by both season and latitude. A winter day in Maine centers on 40°F while Miami centers on 65°F. The ideal range shifts smoothly across latitudes so scores reflect what's actually normal for each region. Multi-day stability matters too — consistent temperatures earn a bonus, while sudden 10°F+ swings reduce the score.
Water Temperature
Optimal range: 60-72°F
Each species has preferred temperature ranges. Generally, 60-72°F represents peak metabolism and feeding for most freshwater gamefish. A 5-day warming trend in spring earns a bonus as fish become more active, while fall cooling can trigger pre-winter feeding. The air-water temperature differential is also scored — when air is 5-15°F warmer than water, insect emergence and surface feeding increase.
Sky Conditions
Partly cloudy (35-40%) is ideal
Cloud cover scoring peaks at 35-40% cover, which provides ideal mix of shade and light. Solar radiation data cross-checks cloud cover for accuracy. Cloud layer differentiation scores thick low overcast (+5, ideal diffused light) differently from thin high cirrus clouds (-3, surface glare still present).
Precipitation
Timing and type matter
Precipitation type matters: light steady drizzle triggers feeding (+5), snow suppresses insect activity (-8), and freezing rain/sleet caps the score at 15 for safety. Hourly data identifies AM vs PM rain timing. CAPE data detects thunderstorm potential with regionally calibrated thresholds. During severe weather (thunderstorms or high winds), solunar and moon phase scores are capped at 50 — fish aren{"'"}t feeding during dangerous conditions regardless of lunar phase.
Tides
Moving water = active fish
Coastal fishing success heavily depends on tidal movement. Moving water (2 hours before/after high or low tide) concentrates bait and triggers feeding.
River Flow
Normal flow is ideal
USGS streamflow data helps predict river conditions. Normal flow (25-75th percentile) provides ideal fishing. High flow brings more food but can be dangerous. Low flow concentrates fish but reduces activity. The rate-of-change over 6 hours detects rising water (food washed in, +5 bonus) or falling from high (fish repositioning, +3 bonus).
UV Index
Peak at UV 3-4, drops above 6
UV scoring peaks at index 3-4 where fish are active at all depths. Above UV 6, fish seek shade and deeper water. Solar radiation data cross-checks UV values for consistency.
Humidity
Dew point drives insect hatches
Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is used as the primary scorer when available, as it best predicts insect emergence conditions. Optimal VPD of 0.5-1.5 kPa indicates prime hatch potential. Falls back to dew point (55-65°F ideal) then humidity percentage when VPD data is unavailable.
Advanced Modifiers
Beyond the twelve weighted factors, these science-backed modifiers adjust the overall score to catch conditions that individual factors miss.
Lunar Distance
The moon's distance from Earth varies between 356,500 km (perigee) and 406,700 km (apogee). A closer moon strengthens gravitational pull on water and fish behavior. Supermoon events (full or new moon at perigee) are among the best fishing days of the year.
Recent Rainfall
Post-rain clearing triggers feeding frenzies as fresh nutrients wash into the water. However, heavy rainfall (>2" in 48 hours) can blow out water with sediment, reducing visibility and suppressing the bite. Extended dry spells in summer also reduce activity.
Dissolved Oxygen
When available, real dissolved oxygen readings from USGS monitoring stations are used directly (≥8 mg/L = no penalty, 6 = -2, 4 = -5, <2 = -10). When no station is nearby, a heuristic proxy estimates DO health from water temperature, wind aeration, recent precipitation, and streamflow — proxy penalties are capped at -5 to reflect lower confidence. When DO is critically low (≤-7 modifier), water temperature's scoring weight is also reduced by 30% since fish behavior changes fundamentally under oxygen stress.
Photoperiod
Rapidly changing day lengths near the equinoxes trigger biological responses in fish. Spring's lengthening days activate pre-spawn feeding surges, while fall's shortening days drive aggressive pre-winter feeding. Near solstices, the effect is neutral.
Hourly Convergence
When dawn, a major solunar period, a pressure drop, and a post-rain clearing align within the same hour, conditions converge for exceptional fishing. The best time windows highlight these convergence events so you can plan your trip around them.
Water Turbidity
When available, real turbidity readings from USGS stations (measured in NTU) reveal water clarity. When no station is nearby, turbidity is estimated from recent rainfall, streamflow trends, and seasonal runoff patterns (spring gets a 1.3x multiplier). Moderate stain (10-50 NTU) is ideal for most species (+5), while very turbid water (>200 NTU) penalizes all species (-8). Sight feeders like bass are especially penalized in murky water.
Spawn Windows
When a target species is selected, the system checks water temperature and day length against known spawn triggers. Pre-spawn conditions (water approaching spawn temp) earn a +8 bonus as fish feed aggressively to prepare. Active spawn conditions apply a -5 penalty since fish focus on reproduction rather than feeding. Post-spawn recovery earns +3 as fish resume feeding.
Air Quality Index
When EPA AirNow data is available, poor air quality reduces the score and triggers a health warning. Good air (AQI ≤50) has no impact, moderate (51-100) applies -2, unhealthy for sensitive groups (101-150) applies -5, and unhealthy+ (>150) applies -10 with a safety advisory in the conditions summary.
Frozen Water Detection
For inland locations above 33°N latitude, the system uses Freezing Degree Days (FDD) computed from recent weather to assess ice conditions. When ice is likely, tips switch to ice fishing guidance: calm wind becomes a positive, under-ice water temp context is shown, and location-specific ice confidence is displayed. Latitude scaling ensures southern regions require more sustained cold to trigger.
Front Synergy Detection
Classic cold-front patterns are detected by combining pressure change, wind direction, and temperature relative to seasonal norms. Pre-cold-front conditions (falling pressure + south wind + warm temps) earn +5 to +8 as fish feed aggressively before the front passes. Post-cold-front (rising pressure + northwest wind + sharp temp drop) applies -5 to -8 as fish go into lockjaw.
Seasonal Weight Shifting
Factor weights shift by season to reflect how fish behavior changes throughout the year. In winter, solunar and pressure matter more (+30% and +20%) while humidity matters less. In summer, humidity, water temperature, and cloud cover increase in importance while solunar decreases. Spring emphasizes water temperature and streamflow. Weights are normalized so the total always sums to 100%.
Data Confidence Weighting
Not all data sources are equally reliable. Measured water temperature from USGS sensors carries full weight, nearby station readings carry 85% weight, and estimated temperatures carry only 60% weight. The weight reduction is automatically redistributed to other factors, so estimated data has proportionally less influence on the final score.
Grading Scale
Coastal vs Freshwater
Our system automatically detects coastal locations and adjusts factor weights accordingly. Base weights shown below shift by season (e.g., winter emphasizes solunar +30%, summer emphasizes humidity +30%):
Coastal Locations
- • Tides factor enabled (12%)
- • Solunar activity (16%)
- • Pressure & wind direction (16% + 13%)
- • UV Index & Humidity tracked
- • Water temp from NOAA buoys + ERDDAP satellite SST
Freshwater Locations
- • No tides factor
- • Solunar activity (18%)
- • River flow from USGS (7%) with trend detection
- • Water temp, dissolved oxygen & turbidity from USGS
- • Frozen water detection for northern latitudes
Data Sources
We aggregate data from trusted government and scientific sources:
- •NOAA CO-OPS — Tide predictions, water levels, and coastal water temperatures
- •NOAA ERDDAP — Satellite sea surface temperature (jplMURSST41) at 1km resolution for coastal and offshore areas
- •USGS Water Services — Real-time stream water temperatures, streamflow discharge, dissolved oxygen concentrations, and turbidity readings from monitoring stations nationwide
- •Open-Meteo — Weather forecasts, barometric pressure, wind speed & direction, precipitation, dew point, vapour pressure deficit, CAPE, visibility, and solar radiation
- •EPA AirNow — Air quality index (AQI) readings with health advisory thresholds
- •Astronomical Algorithms — Precise moon phase, position, lunar distance, and solunar period calculations
Frequently Asked Questions
The best days to fish in 2026 are determined by a combination of moon phases, solunar periods, weather conditions, and barometric pressure. New and full moon phases (occurring roughly every two weeks) create the strongest feeding activity. Our fishing calendar rates every day from A+ to F based on 12 weighted factors including solunar activity, pressure trends, wind, water temperature, and more. Enter your zip code on our homepage to see the best rated days for your specific location.
Whether today is a good day to fish depends on your location and the current conditions. Our fishing forecast analyzes real-time data from NOAA, USGS, and Open-Meteo including moon phase, solunar feeding periods, barometric pressure trends, wind speed and direction, water temperature, and precipitation to give you a daily grade from A+ to F. Enter your zip code on our homepage to get today's fishing rating and see the best times to fish near you.
A fishing almanac is a calendar-based tool that predicts the best days to fish based on astronomical and environmental factors. Traditional fishing almanacs relied primarily on moon phases and solunar tables, but modern digital almanacs like ours combine those with real-time weather data, barometric pressure, water temperature, tides, streamflow, dissolved oxygen, and more. Our fishing almanac covers 24 months of daily fishing forecasts, grading each day from A+ to F so you can plan trips around the highest-rated days.
The solunar calendar predicts fish feeding activity based on the position of the moon and sun relative to your location. When the moon is directly overhead (lunar transit) or directly underfoot (opposing transit), fish enter major feeding periods lasting 2-3 hours. During moonrise and moonset, minor feeding periods occur lasting 1-2 hours. Solunar theory was developed by John Alden Knight in 1926 after analyzing over 200 record catches. Our solunar calendar enhances these predictions with weather data, pressure tracking, and location-specific conditions for more accurate results.
The new moon and full moon phases are generally the best for fishing. During these phases, gravitational pull is strongest, creating more tidal movement in coastal areas and triggering increased fish activity. The 3-4 days surrounding new and full moons typically produce the best fishing conditions. Fish tend to feed more aggressively during these periods due to increased water movement and instinctual feeding responses.
Yes, barometric pressure significantly affects fishing success. Fish can sense pressure changes through their swim bladders. Slowly falling pressure (typically before a weather front) often triggers feeding frenzies as fish instinctively feed before the storm. Stable pressure in the optimal range (29.80-30.20 inHg) keeps fish comfortable and active. Rapidly rising pressure after a front can slow fishing temporarily as fish adjust.
Solunar tables predict the best fishing times based on the position of the sun and moon. They identify major periods (when the moon is directly overhead or underfoot, lasting 2-3 hours) and minor periods (during moonrise and moonset, lasting 1-2 hours). These periods correlate with increased fish feeding activity. Solunar theory was developed by John Alden Knight in 1926 and has been validated by decades of fishing records.
The best times to fish are typically early morning (dawn to a few hours after sunrise) and late afternoon (a few hours before sunset until dusk). These low-light periods offer ideal conditions as fish feel more secure feeding in shallower water. However, solunar feeding periods can occur at any time and often override time-of-day patterns. Major solunar periods during dawn or dusk are particularly productive.
Major feeding periods last 2-3 hours and occur when the moon is directly overhead (lunar transit) or directly underfoot (opposing lunar transit). These are the strongest feeding times of the day. Minor feeding periods last 1-2 hours and occur during moonrise and moonset. While not as intense as major periods, they still represent above-average feeding activity. Planning your fishing around these windows significantly increases catch rates.
Yes, fish often feed aggressively before a storm. The falling barometric pressure that precedes weather fronts triggers instinctive feeding behavior. Fish sense the approaching low pressure and feed heavily in anticipation of the poor conditions to come. This pre-frontal feeding period can produce excellent fishing, often within 12-24 hours before the storm arrives. Once the storm passes, fishing typically slows until pressure stabilizes.
Tides dramatically affect coastal fishing success. Moving water (during incoming and outgoing tides) concentrates baitfish, brings in nutrients, and triggers predator feeding activity. The best fishing typically occurs during the 2 hours before and after high tide or low tide, when water movement is strongest. Slack tide (when the tide changes direction) usually produces slower fishing as water movement pauses temporarily.